Could Hodeidah Be the Launchpad for Military Escalation Against the Houthis?
A recent study by the Mokha Center for Strategic Studies has revealed that Hodeidah city could serve as the starting point for any potential military escalation against the Houthi group, given the increasing attacks on international maritime navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
The study, titled "Prospects of Escalation Against the Houthis Amid U.S. Interests and Saudi Conditions," highlighted that Yemen’s legitimate government has called for adopting a new U.S. strategy. This strategy includes designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization, supporting government forces to regain control of the strategic Hodeidah port, and targeting Houthi leaders to dismantle the group’s command structure.
The study noted active U.S. diplomatic moves in Riyadh, where American counterterrorism officials met with Rashad Al-Alimi, President of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, to discuss ways to counter Houthi threats.
However, Saudi Arabia has expressed reservations about participating in any direct military operation without first signing a strategic security partnership agreement with Washington. Such an agreement would ensure a defensive umbrella and long-term protection of Saudi Arabia’s regional interests.
Hodeidah and its three ports (Hodeidah Port, As-Salif Port, and Ras Isa Port) hold strategic significance as they control international maritime routes in the Red Sea. The Houthi takeover of the city in 2015 has enabled the group to launch attacks on commercial ships, prompting Western countries to reconsider the urgency of liberating the city.
The study indicated that the failure of Western airstrikes to halt Houthi attacks has increased U.S. interest in supporting a ground military operation led by Yemeni government forces to retake Hodeidah.
It also addressed regional shifts, such as the diminishing influence of Iran in the area, which has amplified international pressure on the Houthis as an Iranian proxy in Yemen.
In this context, Saudi Arabia insists on signing a security agreement with Washington before engaging in any military operation to secure long-term U.S. support for its regional security.
The study concluded that any decisive military shift in Yemen requires international and regional consensus, as well as robust support for the legitimate government, to break the current military and political deadlock.
Additionally, the study recommended leveraging the current international will to dismantle Houthi control over Hodeidah and achieve a transformation similar to the Syrian case, ultimately leading to comprehensive and sustainable peace in Yemen.
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